食品和燃料意外推高英国通胀至3.6%，交易员坚定押注央行降息

Group 1 - The UK's inflation rate unexpectedly rose to its highest level since January 2024, primarily due to rising food prices, putting pressure on the Bank of England's ongoing interest rate cut plans [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased from 3.4% to 3.6% in June, exceeding economists' and the Bank of England's expectations of stability [1] - The rise in inflation is attributed to a narrowing decline in motor fuel prices, with June's fuel prices showing only a slight decrease compared to a significant drop in the same month last year, creating a base effect that elevated overall inflation [1] Group 2 - The Bank of England believes the recent inflation increase is temporary, expecting a reversal by the end of the year, supported by cooling economic activity and a weak labor market that may ease consumer price pressures [1] - The service sector's inflation rate remained high at 4.7% in June, exceeding market expectations, indicating persistent price pressures in core areas despite overall inflation expectations of a decline [1] - Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose by 4.5% year-on-year, significantly impacting household inflation expectations and contributing to the CPI increase [1] Group 3 - The Bank of England's Governor Andrew Bailey indicated that the labor market has shown signs of cooling, with job losses accelerating since the Labour government's wage tax and minimum wage increases in April [2] - If the labor market continues to deteriorate, the Bank of England may further cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting on August 7, with a 90% probability of a rate cut already priced in by financial markets [2] - The market is closely monitoring the potential for a "soft landing" for the UK economy, with the future policy direction dependent on the balance between the pace of labor market cooling and inflation decline [2]