中国经济上半年展现韧性，秋季或现政策“转折点”

Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a growth of 5.4% in Q1 and 5.2% in Q2, and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1% in Q2 [1] - The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth was 52%, indicating it as the main driver of growth [4] Resilience and Challenges - Despite external pressures, China's economy shows resilience and potential, supported by proactive macro policies [2][4] - The economy faces challenges from external uncertainties and internal structural adjustments, with a need for balanced growth [3] Export Performance - China's exports exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8% in June, driven by "export grabbing" and enhanced competitiveness of enterprises [4] Policy and Market Outlook - The macro policy is characterized by a reactive approach, with expectations for further adjustments to stabilize growth and achieve the annual target of 5% [5] - The investment strategy is shifting towards structural trends, focusing on sectors like AI, energy, and defense, which are expected to provide substantial growth opportunities [8] Global Economic Context - Global investors face significant uncertainty, particularly regarding the U.S. fiscal deficit and Federal Reserve monetary policy, which complicates decision-making [7] - The focus is shifting from seeking growth to identifying strong, long-term structural trends that can drive investment [8]