美国国债收益率高位持稳，市场静待PPI数据验证关税传导效应

Group 1 - The US Treasury yields are fluctuating near a one-month high, with the 10-year yield stabilizing around 4.48% and the 30-year yield above 5% following a recent increase of 5 basis points [1] - The recent inflation data indicates that the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are gradually impacting prices, leading to a decrease in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with the probability of a cut in September now below 50% [1] - The upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) data is crucial for assessing the inflationary effects of tariffs, with expectations for a 0.3% month-on-month increase in overall PPI and a 0.2% increase in core PPI, both higher than the previous month's growth [4] Group 2 - The market is reassessing the impact of tariff policies, with analysts highlighting the need to monitor the PPI data for further evidence of tariffs driving inflation [4] - Despite better-than-expected consumer data, some product prices are showing signs of tariff transmission, suggesting potential inflationary pressures in the coming months [4] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming Beige Book will provide insights into the current economic landscape, focusing on overall economic growth, supply chain disruptions, and labor shortages [4]