These 2025 Outperformers Just Unlocked Buyback Fuel

Group 1: Dollar Tree (DLTR) - Dollar Tree shares have increased approximately 46% in 2025, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 7% return [1][2] - The company has divested its underperforming Family Dollar stores, leading to a 52% increase in shares since the announcement [2] - Dollar Tree reported a same-store sales growth of 5.4% last quarter, the highest in the last five quarters [2] - On July 9, Dollar Tree replenished its buyback authority to $2.5 billion, representing nearly 11% of its market capitalization of approximately $22.8 billion [3] - The average quarterly buyback spending over the past three years has been around $204 million, with a significant increase last quarter as shares surged [4] - The current buyback capacity could yield an annual return of about 3.7%, beneficial for investors as the stock does not offer dividends [5] - MarketBeat consensus price target for Dollar Tree is just over $90, indicating a potential 17% downside, while JP Morgan's target suggests slight upside at $111 [6] - The company is converting stores to its MultiPrice 3.0 format, which is outperforming other formats, potentially leading to long-term appreciation [7] Group 2: AGCO - AGCO shares have provided a total return of over 19% in 2025, outperforming both the S&P 500 and the industrials sector [8] - The company's last earnings report on May 1 led to a 31% increase in shares, despite a 30% decline in sales [9] - On July 9, AGCO announced a $1 billion share buyback program, equating to approximately 12% of its $8.3 billion market capitalization [10] - The average quarterly buyback spending over the past three years has been around $12 million, with limited buyback activity due to TAFE's significant ownership [10][11] - Disputes with TAFE have been resolved, allowing for effective capital use through buybacks, although the pace remains uncertain [11] - MarketBeat consensus price target for AGCO is $105, indicating a 5% downside, while JP Morgan's target of $130 suggests potential upside [12] - The company's ability to manage tariffs effectively will be crucial for future gains, with a potential trade deal between the U.S. and EU serving as a positive catalyst [12]