刷新历史新高后 银价还有上行空间吗？

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has experienced a significant rally since June, with prices exceeding $39 per ounce, marking a 14-year high, and a year-to-date increase of 33%, surpassing gold's 27% rise [1] Group 1: Short-term Outlook - Analysts express optimism about silver's future performance, attributing recent price increases to the passage of the U.S. tax reduction bill, which is seen as a fiscal stimulus that supports silver's commodity attributes [1] - Three factors are expected to influence silver's short-term performance: reduced uncertainty in tariff policies weakening silver's safe-haven appeal, the implementation of the U.S. tax reduction bill potentially boosting the economy, and a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [2] Group 2: Industrial Demand and Market Dynamics - Silver's industrial demand, which constitutes 50% of its total demand, is expected to provide additional support as market expectations for an economic "soft landing" rise, leading to stronger performance in industrial metals [2] - The rotation of funds from high-priced gold to more elastic silver and other precious metals is noted, as investors seek better value during gold's plateau phase [2] Group 3: Long-term Projections - Long-term projections indicate that the confluence of industrial demand and improved financial attributes of silver may lead to continued excess returns [3] - Citigroup forecasts that silver prices will break the $40 per ounce mark in the coming months, raising its three-month target price from $38 to $40 and its six to twelve-month target from $43 [3]