Can American Express Beat Q2 Earnings on Growing Network Volumes?

Core Insights - American Express Company (AXP) is expected to report second-quarter 2025 results on July 18, 2025, with earnings estimated at $3.86 per share and revenues at $17.69 billion [1][5] Earnings Estimates - The second-quarter earnings estimate has seen four upward revisions and two downward movements in the past 60 days, indicating a year-over-year increase of 10.6% [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues implies a year-over-year growth of 8.3% [2] - For the full year 2025, the revenue estimate is pegged at $71.24 billion, reflecting an 8% year-over-year rise, while the EPS estimate is $15.22, indicating a 14% growth year-over-year [3] Performance Indicators - American Express has beaten consensus estimates in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 5.2% [3] - The company is predicted to have a positive earnings surprise this quarter, supported by an Earnings ESP of +0.72% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [4] Factors Influencing Q2 Results - A rise in network volumes is expected, driven by resilient consumer spending among AXP's premium customer base, with a projected EPS of $3.86 and revenues of $17.69 billion [5] - Total network volumes are estimated to grow by 5.7% year-over-year from $440.6 billion, while Discount revenues are expected to increase by 11.8% [6] - Cards-in-force are projected to grow by 3.2%, and interest income is expected to rise by 13% due to higher loan receivables [7][8] Client Engagement and Costs - Client engagement costs are likely to increase due to higher Card Member spending and travel-related benefits [9] - The pre-tax income estimate from Global Merchant and Network Services indicates a significant decline of 33.6% year-over-year [9]