Comerica's Q2 Earnings to be Hurt by Higher Expenses & Lower Deposits

Core Viewpoint - Comerica Incorporated (CMA) is expected to report second-quarter 2025 results on July 18, with anticipated revenue growth but a decline in earnings compared to the previous year [1][2]. Financial Performance Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2025 earnings is $1.23 per share, reflecting a 19.6% decline from the year-ago quarter [2][9]. - Revenue estimates for the same quarter are projected at $844.7 million, indicating a 2.5% increase year-over-year [2][9]. Loan and Net Interest Income (NII) Insights - The lending environment has been stable, with modest loan demand reported by the Federal Reserve [3]. - Average loans are expected to be higher than the first quarter of 2025, with average earning assets estimated at $70.4 billion, showing a marginal increase [4]. - The consensus estimate for NII is $576.5 million, reflecting a slight rise from the previous quarter's figure of $575 million [5]. Non-Interest Income and Market Activity - Global mergers and acquisitions activity improved in the second quarter, contributing positively to capital market fees, which are estimated at $32.8 million, a 5.9% sequential rise [6][8]. - The IPO market saw a resurgence, leading to increased capital raised and improved market sentiment [7]. Fee Income and Deposit Trends - Overall fee income is expected to grow by 3.7% to $263.5 million, driven by stronger capital markets and card-related revenues [11]. - Average deposits declined by 1% to $61.3 billion, with expectations of further declines impacting service charges on deposits, estimated at $47 million, a 2.1% increase from the prior quarter [10]. Expense and Asset Quality Considerations - Higher expenses are anticipated due to increased compensation costs and lower gains on real estate sales, with non-interest expenses projected to rise slightly from $584 million in the first quarter [12][13]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-performing loans is $308.5 million, indicating a 2.5% rise from the previous quarter [14]. Earnings Prediction Model - The likelihood of Comerica beating earnings estimates is low, with an Earnings ESP of -0.46% and a Zacks Rank of 3 [15].