Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: Should You Buy?

Core Viewpoint - Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite an increase in revenues for the quarter ended June 2025, with the actual results being crucial for its near-term stock price movement [1][2]. Financial Expectations - The consensus estimate for Chipotle's quarterly earnings is $0.32 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 5.9%. Revenues are projected to be $3.1 billion, which is a 4.4% increase from the same quarter last year [3]. - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.41%, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Most Accurate Estimate for Chipotle is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of +0.63%, suggesting a bullish outlook from analysts [12]. - Chipotle holds a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a hold position, which combined with the positive Earnings ESP suggests a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Chipotle was expected to post earnings of $0.28 per share but exceeded expectations with earnings of $0.29, resulting in a surprise of +3.57% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, Chipotle has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates [14]. Industry Context - In comparison, Domino's Pizza (DPZ) is expected to report earnings of $3.93 per share for the same quarter, indicating a year-over-year decline of 2.5%, with revenues projected at $1.14 billion, up 4% from the previous year [18]. - Domino's Pizza has also seen a positive Earnings ESP of +0.49% and a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a similar potential to beat consensus EPS estimates [19].