Earnings Preview: Molina (MOH) Q2 Earnings Expected to Decline

Core Viewpoint - Molina (MOH) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite an increase in revenues for the quarter ended June 2025, with the actual results being a significant factor influencing its near-term stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The consensus estimate for Molina's quarterly earnings is $5.81 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 0.9%, while revenues are projected to reach $10.83 billion, representing a 9.7% increase from the previous year [3]. - The earnings report is expected to be released on July 23, and the stock may rise if the reported numbers exceed expectations, whereas a miss could lead to a decline [2]. Estimate Revisions - Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 2.52%, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Molina is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -5.26%, suggesting a bearish outlook from analysts [12]. Earnings Surprise History - In the last reported quarter, Molina was expected to post earnings of $5.86 per share but exceeded this with actual earnings of $6.08, resulting in a positive surprise of 3.75% [13]. - Over the last four quarters, Molina has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times, indicating some historical resilience [14]. Predictive Models - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive reading is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a favorable Zacks Rank [10]. - However, a negative Earnings ESP reading does not necessarily indicate an earnings miss, and stocks with negative readings are difficult to predict for earnings beats [11]. Conclusion - Molina does not currently appear to be a compelling candidate for an earnings beat, and investors should consider other factors when making decisions regarding the stock ahead of its earnings release [17].