美国6月份通胀数据升温 美联储观望态度或延续

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, slightly above market expectations and the highest increase since February [1] - The month-on-month CPI rose by 0.3%, matching market expectations and higher than the 0.1% increase in May, marking the second-highest monthly increase in 2025 [1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.2% month-on-month, accelerating from 0.1% in May, while the year-on-year core CPI growth was 2.9%, slightly below the expected 3% [1] Group 2 - The market is currently pricing in a 97.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates in July, indicating that the June inflation data has not significantly impacted short-term rate cut expectations [2] - There is a notable divergence in market expectations regarding a potential rate cut in September, with a 48% probability of maintaining rates and a 52% probability of a rate cut, reflecting growing concerns about possible inflation rebounds [2] - The article suggests that while June's CPI data shows some warming, the overall performance remains moderate, and the impact of U.S. tariff policies on commodity prices is beginning to emerge, warranting further observation [2]