Should You Buy, Sell or Hold MELI Stock After Trump's Tariff Pledge?

Core Insights - MercadoLibre (MELI) has established Brazil as its largest market, contributing over 50% of total revenues, but faces risks from a potential 50% U.S. tariff on Brazilian imports [1][10] - S&P Global Ratings upgraded MELI to an investment-grade BBB rating, citing strong business performance and financial management [3][10] - The stock is currently trading at a premium valuation with a forward P/E ratio of 40.79X compared to the industry average of 25.86X, indicating potential overvaluation [6][10] Market Risks - The imposition of tariffs could negatively impact consumer spending in Brazil, affecting MELI's e-commerce and fintech growth [1][2] - Brazil may retaliate with trade actions that could disrupt MELI's logistics and increase operational costs [2] - Investor sentiment is cautious due to geopolitical risks and economic uncertainty in Brazil, leading to underperformance compared to industry peers [12] Competitive Landscape - In fintech, MELI faces competition from Nubank, which has nearly 100 million monthly active users and offers low-cost digital banking services [4] - In e-commerce, Amazon and Sea Limited's Shopee are expanding rapidly in Brazil, increasing competitive pressure on MELI [5] Financial Performance - MELI's share price has returned 13.2% over the past three months, underperforming the broader sector and industry [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings is $47.75 per share, reflecting a 26.69% year-over-year growth, while revenues are expected to reach $27.35 billion, indicating a 31.66% year-over-year growth [15] Growth Initiatives - MELI is focusing on digital advertising through Mercado Ads, aiming to enhance seller engagement and ad adoption [16] - The launch of Mercado Play, a free streaming app, is expected to unlock new advertising opportunities and deepen user engagement [17] - Mercado Pago plans to apply for a banking license in Argentina to expand digital banking services, which could enhance product offerings and user experience [18][19]