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创新药行业:正向循环贯通 产业拐点确立
Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang·2025-07-17 01:07

Investment Logic - The domestic innovative drug industry is expected to reach a turning point by 2025, shifting from capital-driven to profit-driven trends, presenting opportunities for both performance and valuation recovery in the sector [1] - Marginal changes in fundamentals continue to support a recovery in the secondary market [2] Industry Developments - 2023 is seen as the year of profitability, with innovative products being commercialized and leading innovative drug companies entering a profit cycle [3] - Accelerated transformation of innovative results is observed, with global breakthrough clinical data being released, driving sustained activity in overseas licensing markets and accelerating the realization of research and development outcomes [4] - Continuous release of supportive policies for innovative drugs includes the introduction of the first Class B medical insurance directory within the year, which is expected to continuously expand the market size for innovative drugs [5] - Comprehensive support policies for the entire industry chain are deepening, with new measures expected to be implemented regarding drug pricing mechanisms and further support for innovative drug policies [6] - From a mid-term perspective, the industry shows significant advantages in demand, while the supply side's competitive landscape is continuously improving, leading to an overall optimization of the supply-demand structure, maintaining a positive outlook on innovative drug investment opportunities [7] Investment Recommendations - The domestic innovative drug industry is entering a new profit-driven cycle, with a three-dimensional stock selection framework based on clinical demand, technology platforms, and product strength [8] - Focus on Pharma companies transitioning to innovation, which have strong performance resilience and are currently entering a realization phase for their innovation pipelines. Companies such as Huadong Medicine, Aosaikang, and Jiankangyuan are recommended [9] - Biotech companies are expected to continue growing, with potential products undergoing overseas registration. The industry is moving towards a high-quality development phase characterized by research upgrades, innovation authenticity, and international integration, with traditional Pharma companies gradually clearing their existing businesses [10]