养殖板块反弹，关注同类规模第一的养殖ETF（159865）布局机会

Core Viewpoint - The pig farming ETF (159865) has shown a positive performance, with a 0.99% increase on July 16 and a 1.99% rise over the past 10 days [1][3]. Market Analysis - The pig market price has rebounded from a low of 14.1 yuan/kg at the end of June to 15.1 yuan/kg, although there has been a slight decline since then [3]. - The demand for pigs exhibits stable seasonality, with the peak consumption period typically occurring from the fourth quarter to early next year due to the Spring Festival. Currently, the market is in a low-demand season [5]. - The slaughtering rate in the pig industry is slightly higher than the same period last year, but the difference is minimal. Short-term support for pork consumption is lacking due to seasonal factors, such as school vacations and reduced outdoor activities, leading to a decline in group meal demand [5]. Supply Dynamics - The fluctuations in pig prices are primarily driven by supply-side factors, with the industry currently experiencing growth in supply, resulting in a strong supply and weak demand scenario [7]. - As of May, the number of breeding sows was reported at 40.42 million, an increase of 40,000 heads. In June, a sample of enterprises indicated a breeding sow count of 7.0337 million, up by 54,800 heads, which puts pressure on prices [7]. - The recent rebound in pig farming is attributed to expectations regarding supply-side policies and a short-term price increase. However, the fundamental supply-demand imbalance continues to exert downward pressure on future prices [7]. Investment Outlook - Despite the current supply-demand dynamics, the overall increase in the pig farming sector remains relatively low compared to other supply-side reform sectors, such as steel. Investors are advised to monitor the situation and consider buying on dips [7].