中金：升敏实集团(00425)目标价至30.5港元 评级“跑赢行业”

Core Viewpoint - CICC reports that Minth Group (00425) has seen significant growth in both European and domestic new energy vehicle sales, which is expected to drive high revenue growth in the company's battery box business for 1H25. The net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 7% and 5% to CNY 2.9 billion and CNY 3.35 billion respectively. The current stock price corresponds to 9.4x and 8.0x P/E for 2025E and 2026E, maintaining an outperform rating with a target price increase of 11% to HKD 30.5, indicating a 21% upside potential from the current price [1]. Group 1 - In the first five months of 2025, European new energy vehicle sales have shown strong growth, with pure electric vehicle registrations increasing by 26.1% year-on-year to 701,000 units, achieving a penetration rate of 15.4%, up 3.3 percentage points year-on-year. Plug-in hybrid sales rose by 15% to 375,000 units, and the UK saw a 33.4% year-on-year increase in pure electric vehicle registrations [2]. - In China, the passenger car production and wholesale volume achieved double-digit growth in 1H25, with pure electric vehicle wholesale sales increasing by 40.9% year-on-year. The company is well-positioned in both the European and Chinese markets, which are key for its battery box business [2]. Group 2 - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of 28.9% in 2024, up 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, with stable growth in gross margins across its main businesses. The company anticipates maintaining high gross margins in 2025, supported by high capacity utilization and stable raw material prices [3]. - The company has seen a steady decline in management and R&D expense ratios since 2023, with 2024 management and R&D expense ratios at 7.1% and 6.3% respectively. The company is expected to generate significant free cash flow in 2024 and resume dividends [3]. - The company is actively exploring new business areas, including humanoid robots, low-altitude aircraft, and wireless charging. A partnership with Zhiyuan Robotics was announced on March 20, 2025, focusing on smart exterior and electronic skin technology, wireless charging for humanoid robots, and flexible intelligent manufacturing solutions [3].