关税推高物价，美债30年期收益率破5%

Group 1 - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June, exceeding market expectations and marking the largest increase since February [1] - Core CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, slightly below expectations but still higher than the previous value, indicating inflationary pressures [1] - Analysts suggest that the recent rebound in prices is significantly influenced by the U.S. government's trade policies, particularly the increase or threat of increased tariffs on major trading partners [3] Group 2 - Following the inflation data release, there was a call from the U.S. President for a 3% interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which sparked criticism regarding interference with the central bank's independence [3] - Market expectations for a rate cut in July have diminished, with a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain rates, and a reduced likelihood of a cut in September to around 50% [3] - The inflation rebound and cooling rate cut expectations have led to a sell-off in the U.S. bond market, with the 30-year Treasury yield surpassing 5% and the 10-year yield approaching 4.5% [3] Group 3 - The simultaneous decline in U.S. stocks and bonds has put pressure on the dollar, resulting in a rare situation where U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar are all under pressure [3] - Analysts warn of the potential risk of a "triple whammy" affecting stocks, bonds, and currency if inflation exceeds expectations, particularly as high valuations in the stock market may face downward adjustments due to slowing growth expectations [3]