日本参议院选举民调预警“政治地震” 6.8万亿美元日股市场迎考验

Group 1 - The Japanese stock market is expected to face a prolonged decline following the upcoming Senate elections, with predictions indicating that the ruling coalition may lose its majority, impacting Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's government [1] - Political concerns have already affected market performance, with local stocks underperforming compared to the MSCI World Index this month [1] - If the ruling party loses its majority, the market may take an average of 35 to 75 days to bottom out, with an average total decline of about 8% during this period [1] Group 2 - The Tokyo Stock Exchange index fell by 1.2% in July after three months of gains, with a potentially weak minority government complicating trade negotiations with the U.S. and disrupting investor sentiment [2] - The increase in tariffs by Trump on Japanese goods, particularly the rise from 24% to 25%, has negatively impacted Japan's exports and heightened the risk of a technical economic recession [5] - The upcoming elections may influence corporate governance reforms in Japan, which have been a significant driver of the stock market's rise in recent years [5] Group 3 - There is a growing populist sentiment in Japan, similar to trends seen in the West, with income redistribution becoming an important theme moving forward [7] - The impact of the elections on Japan's $6.8 trillion stock market could be complex, with export companies potentially benefiting from yen depreciation while consumer stocks may rise due to opposition proposals to lower food sales tax [7] - If extreme right and left-wing parties gain strength, there could be a "triple decline" in the yen, bonds, and stocks [7]