鲍威尔去留撼动利率预期 黄金期货高位震荡

Group 1 - Gold futures are currently trading around 782.80 CNY, with a reported price of 777.00 CNY per gram, reflecting a 0.06% increase, and a trading range between 773.64 CNY and 782.84 CNY [1] - The short-term outlook for gold futures indicates a sideways trend [1] Group 2 - Reports indicate that Trump is preparing to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, leading to a significant drop in the US dollar and an increase in the 10-year Treasury yield [3] - The likelihood of an early rate cut has heightened concerns about potential inflation acceleration, which may lead to increased borrowing costs in the future [3] - The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.44% to 4.49% following the news [3] - Short-term US interest rate futures continue to rise as traders increase bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut [3] - According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining rates in July is 95.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 4.7% [3] - The probability of maintaining rates in September has dropped to 32%, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut probability at 64.9% and a 50 basis point cut at 3.1% [3] Group 3 - Key resistance levels for gold futures are identified between 783 CNY and 813 CNY per gram, while important support levels are between 765 CNY and 800 CNY per gram [4]