Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility in the market due to Trump's tariff threats and the subsequent delays in their implementation, highlighting the phenomenon of "TACO trades" since April's "Liberation Day" [1][2]. Major TACO Trades - On April 9, tariffs on multiple countries were set to a maximum rate of 50%, but Trump announced a 90-day suspension a week later, reducing the rates [1]. - On May 26, Trump threatened to impose 50% tariffs on the EU, but postponed the effective date to July 9 to allow for negotiations [1]. - In early July, the suspension of tariffs was extended to August 1, following the original July 9 deadline [1]. - On July 14, Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Russia if hostilities continued, but provided a 50-day buffer period [1]. - On July 16, reports emerged of Trump considering firing Powell, leading to significant market fluctuations, which he later denied [1]. Market Perspectives - Barclays believes rationality will prevail, as Trump's tolerance for market volatility appears limited [3]. - HSBC suggests that the Trump administration could easily delay tariffs again without any obstacles [3]. - Mitsubishi UFJ notes that the market does not expect a repeat of the turmoil caused by the April tariffs [3]. - Deutsche Bank warns that if Trump does not back down this time, significant market volatility could ensue [3]. - Nordea highlights the unprecedented scale of tariff increases, yet the market remains unusually calm, which is concerning [3]. - Analyst Jamie McGeever points out that the line between complacency and "TACO trades" may have blurred, potentially encouraging Trump to intensify tariff actions [3]. - SPI Asset Management indicates that the market currently views Trump's new tariffs on the EU and Mexico as mere noise, but risks are increasing as deadlines approach [3].
金十整理:特朗普恐吓市场上瘾?盘一盘4月“解放日”以来,共出现过几次“TACO交易”
news flash·2025-07-17 03:26