需求阶段性处于高位 预计焦煤近期仍然易涨难跌

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is experiencing a gradual recovery in production capacity, with an increase in both raw coal and coking coal output, although the pace of recovery remains slow due to various factors such as safety inspections and seasonal demand fluctuations [1][2]. Group 1: Production and Supply - The capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines has increased to 86.1%, with a daily average raw coal output rising by 11,000 tons to 1,929,000 tons, and a daily average coking coal output increasing by 5,000 tons to 770,000 tons, both reaching an 8-week high [1]. - Domestic coal is in a recovery phase, but the pace is slow, particularly for Mongolian coal, which faced a temporary closure due to the Nadam Festival from July 11 to July 15, with resumption of operations on July 16 [2]. - The overall supply of coking coal remains tight, with smooth coal mine shipments and a phenomenon of oversold pre-sales [2]. Group 2: Pricing and Demand - Recent auction results for coking coal in Inner Mongolia show significant price increases, with high ash low sulfur coal (A15S0.8) selling for 910 CNY/ton, up 120 CNY/ton from the previous auction [1]. - The demand from downstream steel companies is high, with increased inventory replenishment, and the overall market is expected to maintain a tight balance between supply and demand in the short term [2]. - The coal market is anticipated to experience price fluctuations, with a focus on the ongoing recovery of Mongolian coal and the potential for supply disruptions in August [3].