光大期货：供需双弱局面下螺纹短期窄幅整理运行

Core Viewpoint - The rebar market is currently facing weak supply and demand dynamics, with a slight accumulation of inventory but still at low levels, leading to a forecast of narrow range trading in the short term [1][3]. Group 1: Production and Inventory Data - As of July 17, the national rebar production decreased by 76,000 tons week-on-week to 2.0906 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 144,100 tons [1]. - Social inventory increased by 106,700 tons week-on-week to 3.7016 million tons, but decreased by 208,410 tons year-on-year [1]. - Factory inventory decreased by 77,800 tons week-on-week to 1.731 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 189,000 tons [1]. - Rebar apparent consumption fell by 153,300 tons to 2.0617 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 252,700 tons [1]. Group 2: Demand and Market Conditions - The construction sector is currently in a traditional off-season, with seasonal maintenance increasing at steel mills, leading to a decline in rebar production [1]. - The availability of funds for engineering projects remains low, resulting in continued weak terminal demand and sluggish market transactions [1]. - The average daily transaction volume of construction materials nationwide from Monday to Wednesday was 93,200 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 6.15% [2]. - In the real estate sector, fixed asset investment from January to June grew by 2.8% year-on-year, with a decline in real estate investment by 11.2% [2]. Group 3: Export Performance - Despite domestic demand weakness, steel exports remained strong, with 58.15 million tons exported from January to June, a year-on-year increase of 9.2% [2]. - In June alone, exports reached 9.68 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.7%, which significantly compensates for the lack of domestic demand [2].