选举焦虑叠加财政隐忧，日元面临多重压力，关键点位150恐难守

Group 1 - The Japanese yen may weaken further if Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ruling coalition loses its majority in the upcoming Senate elections, with currency strategists preparing for this scenario [1][2] - Polls indicate that the ruling coalition led by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) may not secure enough seats to maintain a majority, leading to increased government spending commitments [1][3] - The yield on Japanese government bonds has risen to multi-year highs due to fiscal concerns, while election anxiety has pressured the yen, which recently fell to its lowest level since April [1][2] Group 2 - If the ruling coalition loses a significant number of seats, the yen could depreciate to 155 yen per dollar, a level not seen since February [2][3] - Analysts suggest that the rapid depreciation of the yen may lead to a loss of confidence in the currency and interest rates, with the 150 yen per dollar level acting more as a speed bump than a resistance level [3] - The outcome of the elections and subsequent trade negotiations with the U.S. will significantly influence the yen's future, with potential for appreciation if the ruling coalition performs better than expected [3]