人民币与美元指数“同涨”，后续走势如何？

Group 1 - The recent rebound of the US dollar is attributed to lowered expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, improved outlook for a "soft landing" in the US economy, and diminishing uncertainty regarding tariffs [1] - The US dollar index has shown signs of recovery due to a slight increase in inflation risks as indicated by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June, which has led to a minor rebound in US Treasury yields and the dollar index [1][2] - Analysts believe that the long-term trend of a weaker dollar is supported by the ongoing diversification of the international monetary system, with the dollar's global reserve share falling below 60% for ten consecutive quarters [2] Group 2 - The recent appreciation of the Chinese yuan indicates that the central bank may be guiding the currency towards a moderate strengthening, with expectations that it could maintain its strength in the short term [3] - The yuan's performance is closely linked to the outlook for the US dollar, with potential for appreciation if the dollar continues to weaken, although significant fluctuations are not anticipated [3][5] - Analysts predict that the yuan will likely fluctuate within the range of 7.1 to 7.3 against the dollar for most of the second half of the year, despite a potential weakening of the dollar index [5] Group 3 - The increase in cross-border RMB settlement amounts reflects the acceleration of RMB internationalization, with significant inflows indicating foreign confidence in Chinese assets [6] - In the first half of the year, cross-border RMB settlement amounted to 8.3 trillion yuan, with trade and direct investment contributing significantly to this figure [5][6]