下游制品需求处于淡季 预计胶价反弹仍有空间

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the rubber market is facing challenges due to cost pressures, weak demand, and intense price competition among manufacturers [2] - Thailand's meteorological department has warned of potential heavy rainfall and flooding from July 20-22, which could impact rubber production [2] - Upcoming policy changes in Malaysia, including mandatory pension contributions for foreign workers and expanded latex import sales tax, are expected to further increase production costs [2] Group 2 - According to recent data, Côte d'Ivoire's rubber exports for the first half of 2025 reached 751,672 tons, an increase of 11.8% compared to 672,585 tons in the same period of 2024 [2] - Cambodia's latex exports for the first half of 2025 decreased by 20% to 112,595 tons, down from 140,653 tons in the same period last year [2] - Domestic rubber production in China is being disrupted by rainfall, limiting the pace of raw material output, while Southeast Asia's new rubber release remains slow [3] Group 3 - The current market sentiment is characterized by a supply increase and demand decrease, leading to a potential rebound in rubber prices, although the fundamental logic suggests prices may fluctuate downwards [3] - Downstream product demand is currently in a low season, with new orders falling short of last year's levels, resulting in high finished product inventories that pressure some companies' operations [3] - Technical analysis suggests that rubber prices are likely to maintain a strong fluctuation trend in the near term, with recommendations for a bullish trading strategy [3]