150余封加税函威胁，同步推进高压谈判，特朗普的策略能否奏效

Group 1: Trade Policy and Negotiations - The U.S. government is warning over 150 countries about potential tariff increases of 10% to 15% if they do not reach favorable trade agreements with the U.S. [1] - Trump has extended the deadline for "reciprocal tariffs" to August 1, with proposed tariffs ranging from 20% to 50% on various countries, including 25% on Japan and South Korea, and up to 50% on Brazil [4] - The EU has strongly reacted to the proposed 30% tariffs, stating they are unacceptable and preparing a countermeasure list valued at €72 billion [6] Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Impact - Financial markets showed a muted response to the tariff announcements, with slight increases in major indices such as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 [1] - Analysts suggest that the stock market tends to ignore low-probability tail risks but may react sharply if the likelihood of significant tariffs increases [2] - Recent U.S. economic data indicates rising inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing by 2.7% year-over-year, leading to concerns about future cost pressures on consumers [8] Group 3: Global Economic Outlook - The UNCTAD has warned that U.S. tariff policies are causing significant distortions in global supply chains, predicting a potential 54% drop in exports for the least developed countries [9] - The organization has revised the global GDP growth forecast for 2025 down from 2.8% to 2.3% due to the uncertainties surrounding trade policies [9] - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, highlighted major risks to the U.S. economy, including trade uncertainties and high asset prices [9]