关税阴影下的消费弹性：美国6月零售销售超预期反弹

Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - In June, U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% month-over-month, reaching $720.1 billion, reversing a 0.9% decline in May and significantly exceeding market expectations of 0.1% [2][3] - Year-over-year, retail sales grew by 3.9%, up from 3.3% in May, indicating a sustained recovery in consumer spending [2] - Core retail sales, excluding automobiles and parts, rose by 0.5%, surpassing the expected 0.3% [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The retail sector showed a mixed performance, with health and personal care stores seeing a 7.1% year-over-year increase, while gas stations and electronics stores experienced declines of 4.0% and 1.5%, respectively [2][3] - Non-store retailers (online merchants) reported a 4.5% year-over-year sales increase, and food services and drinking places grew by 6.6%, highlighting the ongoing vitality of online and service consumption [2] Group 3: Trade Price Trends - The import price index rose by 0.1% month-over-month in June, ending a 0.4% decline in May, with non-fuel import prices increasing by 0.1% [6][7] - Export prices showed stronger performance, increasing by 0.5% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, marking the highest level since January 2025 [6][7] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The synchronized recovery in retail and trade price data underscores the resilience of the U.S. economy amid tariff uncertainties, with strong consumer demand supporting import needs [7] - The long-term low energy prices may suppress investment willingness in related sectors, while ongoing tariff concerns could shift from short-term consumption stimulation to long-term confidence suppression [7]