美国房屋建筑商信心持续低迷 价格削减力度创三年新高

Core Insights - The U.S. housing market is experiencing weak demand due to inflation and high interest rates, prompting builders to significantly lower new home prices to attract buyers [1][2] - The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported a slight increase in the builder confidence index to 33 in July 2025, still well below the neutral line of 50, indicating ongoing pessimism in the market [1][2] Group 1: Builder Confidence and Market Conditions - The builder confidence index has been negative for 15 consecutive months, down from 41 points a year ago [1] - 38% of builders reported lowering new home prices in July, the highest percentage since tracking began in 2022, compared to 29% in April [1] - Average price reductions remain at 5%, unchanged since November 2023, reflecting the pressure builders face in sales [1] Group 2: Sales Strategies and Economic Outlook - Builders are also using "buy-down" strategies to lower mortgage rates for buyers, which is less damaging to profit margins than direct price cuts [2] - If large public builders resort to direct price cuts, they may face significant declines in gross margins and earnings per share (EPS) [2] - The current sales situation index rose by 1 point to 36, while the buyer traffic index fell to 20, the lowest since late 2022 [2] Group 3: Regional Insights and Future Projections - Builder confidence in the Northeast increased slightly, while the Midwest remained stable; however, confidence declined further in the South and West, with the West showing the weakest sentiment [2] - NAHB's chief economist predicts a continued decline in single-family home starts in 2025 due to ongoing affordability challenges, with single-family building permits down 6% year-over-year [2]