ZACKS·2025-07-17 16:35Core Insights - Comfort Systems USA (FIX) and Carrier Global (CARR) operate in the HVAC sector but serve different market niches, with FIX focusing on commercial HVAC contracting and CARR providing a wide range of HVAC and refrigeration equipment globally [1][2] Comfort Systems Overview - Comfort Systems employs a business model of organic growth complemented by strategic acquisitions, leading to a steady revenue stream and cost synergies [3] - The company has a record-high backlog of $6.9 billion as of Q1 2025, with strong demand in technology sectors, particularly data centers and chip fabrication, which constitute 62% of total volume [4] - The company benefits from shorter-duration contracts and faster cash turnover, providing resilience against tariff and inflation pressures [3][4] - Institutional markets, including healthcare, education, and government, remain robust, with healthcare contributing 10% of revenue [4][5] - Despite macro uncertainties, the company maintains a conservative guidance approach, projecting high-single-digit organic growth for the year [5] Carrier Overview - Carrier anticipates mid-single-digit sales growth in 2025, with nearly 20% EPS growth driven by pricing and productivity initiatives [8][11] - The company is capitalizing on strong demand in commercial HVAC, particularly in data centers, with sales expected to double from $500 million in 2024 to $1 billion in 2025 [10] - Carrier's global scale and digital penetration enhance its aftermarket business, which is a high-margin driver [9][11] - The company faces challenges such as tariff-related cost inflation, which poses a $300 million risk, and macroeconomic uncertainties affecting residential and light commercial HVAC spending [12] Stock Performance Comparison - Comfort Systems shares have surged 57.1% in the past three months, outperforming Carrier's 25.9% gain [13] - FIX trades at a premium valuation of around 27× forward 12-month earnings, supported by a 36.4% return on equity (ROE), while CARR trades at approximately 23.2× forward earnings with an 18.1% ROE [17] - Comfort Systems' earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have trended upward to $19.28 and $20.41 per share, indicating year-over-year growth of 32.1% and 5.8% respectively [19] - Carrier's earnings estimates for the same periods have also increased to $3.03 and $3.43 per share, reflecting year-over-year growth of 18.4% and 13.1% respectively [21] Investment Outlook - Comfort Systems is viewed as having stronger upside potential due to faster growth and a robust project pipeline, currently holding a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [23] - Carrier, while a solid blue-chip with a good dividend yield of 1.2%, is rated Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) and has a more moderate growth outlook [23][15]