怎么看外币存款余额重上万亿美元

Core Viewpoint - The foreign currency deposit balance has surpassed $1 trillion again, reflecting a significant increase driven by improved exports and heightened willingness among businesses to hold foreign currency deposits to avoid high exchange rates and manage currency risk [1][2]. Group 1: Foreign Currency Deposit Growth - As of June, the foreign currency deposit balance reached $1.02 trillion, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.7% and an addition of $165.5 billion in the first half of the year [1][2]. - The increase in foreign currency deposits is primarily attributed to non-financial and non-bank financial enterprises, which contributed $95.57 billion and $37.45 billion, respectively, while individual deposits saw minimal growth [2][3]. - The trade surplus has significantly increased, with exports totaling $1.8089 trillion and imports at $1.2230 trillion, resulting in a surplus of $585.96 billion, a nearly 35% increase from the previous year [2]. Group 2: Business Behavior and Currency Holding - Businesses are showing a reduced willingness to convert foreign currency into local currency, preferring to hold deposits instead, driven by factors such as avoiding high exchange rates during the appreciation of the yuan and seeking to enhance the value of their foreign currency holdings [4][5]. - The trend of holding foreign currency deposits is also influenced by the current interest rate environment, where foreign currency deposit rates are significantly higher than those for yuan deposits, making it more attractive for businesses to retain foreign currency [6][7]. - Companies are increasingly adopting flexible strategies for currency conversion, allowing them to hedge against currency fluctuations and optimize their financial returns [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Market analysts expect the trend of high foreign currency deposits to continue, with predictions that the balance will remain above the $1 trillion mark in the second half of the year [7]. - The stability of the yuan and the narrowing interest rate differential between the U.S. dollar and the yuan are contributing to a more cautious approach among businesses regarding currency conversion, as they manage risks associated with potential future currency fluctuations [7].