“反内卷”后，光伏板块如何演绎？

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic (PV) sector has experienced significant competition and adjustment, leading to a decline in the financial performance of many companies within the industry, despite previous growth driven by policies and global energy transition demands [1][2][3]. Industry Overview - The PV industry in China has evolved from relying on foreign technology to achieving self-innovation and leading high-end manufacturing, establishing a competitive edge globally [2][3]. - China has been the world's largest PV producer since 2007, with over 80% of global production capacity and 55% of new installations in 2024 [3][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The rapid expansion of production capacity has led to a significant oversupply in the PV industry, with capacities for silicon wafers, batteries, and modules reaching 753GW, 654GW, and 588GW respectively in 2024, far exceeding actual demand [4]. - Demand growth for new installations has slowed, with the EU and the US experiencing a decline in growth rates, leading to concerns about future demand [5][7][8]. Price Trends and Financial Impact - The oversupply has resulted in a drastic drop in prices for key materials, such as polysilicon, which saw a nearly 90% decrease from its peak [10]. - The financial performance of PV companies has deteriorated, with a projected revenue decline of 18.34% and a shift from a profit of 122.1 billion yuan in 2023 to a loss of 20.59 billion yuan in 2024 [14]. Policy Response and Future Outlook - Recent "anti-involution" policies aim to address the chaotic competition in the PV sector, promoting quality improvement and the orderly exit of outdated capacities [15][16]. - The introduction of these policies has already shown positive effects, with polysilicon prices increasing by 39% in a short period, indicating potential recovery in the industry [15]. - The PV sector is expected to undergo consolidation and enter a stable development phase, with long-term growth prospects supported by ongoing global clean energy demand and technological advancements [16][17]. Investment Opportunities - The current valuation of the PV sector, with a price-to-book ratio of 1.90, suggests that potential risks have been somewhat mitigated, presenting investment opportunities as the market stabilizes [18]. - The Huatai-PineBridge fund's PV ETF is highlighted as a convenient option for investors looking to capitalize on the sector's recovery [19].