“反内卷”持续推进，钢铁基本面边际好转，关注全市场唯一钢铁ETF（515210）

Group 1 - The current "anti-involution" movement differs from the previous supply-side reform, as it encompasses a broader range of industries beyond traditional manufacturing such as steel, cement, and coal [1] - Recent policies and initiatives from the Central Financial Committee and various industries have elevated market awareness of "anti-involution," leading to improved performance in related ETFs like steel ETF (515210) and coal ETF (515220) [1] - The steel industry has faced significant demand-side pressures, particularly from the real estate sector, with demand for steel in real estate dropping from 377 million tons in 2020 to an estimated 215 million tons in 2024, a decline of approximately 43% [2] Group 2 - The steel industry has been implementing self-imposed production limits, with the China Iron and Steel Association warning six companies about negative cash flow while still increasing crude steel output [3] - There are signs of marginal improvement in the steel industry's fundamentals, as the decline in real estate demand has lessened its impact on overall steel demand [4] - Cost pressures on the steel industry are easing, with coal prices declining and expectations of increased iron ore supply leading to potential price reductions, which could benefit steel production costs [5] Group 3 - If the steel industry can reduce crude steel output by 30 million tons by 2025, it is projected that profit per ton of steel could increase by 229 yuan, effectively doubling current profitability [5] - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies and the anticipated improvements in demand and cost structures suggest a more favorable competitive landscape for the steel industry [5] - Investors can consider the steel ETF (515210) as a means to gain exposure to the steel sector, which tracks the China Steel Index and includes companies across the steel supply chain [5][6]