降息预期遭削弱白银走势陷盘整

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that strong retail sales and initial jobless claims data have weakened market expectations for a recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2][3] - Retail sales in June increased by 0.6%, significantly surpassing the market expectation of 0.1%, while core retail sales rose by 0.5%, better than the expected 0.3% [2] - Initial jobless claims fell to 221,000, below the market expectation of 235,000, indicating resilience in the labor market [2][3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates may remain cautious due to inflation pressures and the recent economic data, with a potential economic growth slowdown to 1% and an unemployment rate rise to 4.5% [3] - The upcoming CPI data will be crucial; if the core CPI year-on-year rate rises to 2.9% or higher, expectations for rate cuts may be further delayed, supporting the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [3] - Conversely, if inflation pressures ease, the Federal Reserve may initiate rate cuts in September or December, which could boost U.S. stocks and silver prices [3] Group 3 - Technical analysis suggests that silver prices are maintaining support at 37.3, with expectations of upward movement after a recent adjustment from a high of 39 [4] - The silver price is projected to have upward potential, with a focus on the resistance level around 38.6, indicating possible formation of two peaks or a single peak at this level [4]