Market Review - The main pure soda futures contract closed at 1225 CNY/ton, with an increase of 1.16% [1] Fundamental Summary - As of July 17, the theoretical profit for ammonia-soda method pure soda in China was -83.20 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.90 CNY/ton compared to the previous period [2] - On July 18, Henan Haohua Junhua's pure soda facility reduced output due to boiler issues, expected to resume operations the next day; Chongqing Heyou Industrial's 400,000 tons/year pure soda facility is operating at reduced capacity; Tangshan Sanyou's 2.3 million tons/year pure soda facility is also running at about 70% capacity [2] - As of July 17, the total inventory of domestic pure soda manufacturers was 1.9056 million tons, an increase of 42,200 tons from the previous Thursday, representing a rise of 2.26%. This week, the inventory trend continues to accumulate, reaching a new record high, indicating significant oversupply pressure in the market [2] Institutional Perspectives - Minmetals Futures noted that the operating rate of downstream float glass remains stable, while the operating rate of photovoltaic glass continues to decline, leading to weak demand for pure soda. Although some companies have increased their operating loads, the mid-term supply remains loose, and inventory pressure continues to grow. The net short positions have decreased, but short positions remain concentrated. In the short term, a rebound driven by market sentiment is expected, but the fundamental supply-demand contradiction persists, indicating a weak trend in the medium term [3] - Jianxin Futures stated that with the recovery of summer maintenance facilities, pure soda production has increased significantly, leading to substantial inventory accumulation. On the demand side, major domestic photovoltaic companies are gradually implementing production cuts in response to "anti-involution," resulting in a decrease in daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass, which raises expectations for reduced production in downstream glass. Therefore, the demand outlook is bearish. Additionally, the accumulation of inventory among companies continues, maintaining an overall surplus that suppresses prices. On the macro front, the Central Financial Committee's meeting proposed "orderly exit of backward production capacity," coupled with expectations of interest rate cuts by the central bank, which may enhance market risk appetite. The future market trend is expected to follow a strong oscillation in the short term, while the fundamental supply-demand contradiction remains bearish in the long term [3]
夏季检修装置恢复 预计纯碱期货的走势仍然偏弱
Jin Tou Wang·2025-07-18 06:32