欧洲央行利率路径仍不明晰 最后一次降息或推迟至12月

Core Viewpoint - A survey of economists indicates that the European Central Bank (ECB) may delay its final interest rate cut until December, suggesting that the easing cycle is not yet perceived as over [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Most respondents expect the ECB to maintain rates at the upcoming policy meeting, with a final cut of 25 basis points anticipated in September, lowering the deposit facility rate to 1.75% [1]. - Approximately one-quarter of respondents believe the ECB has completed its rate cuts, while nearly half predict the last cut will occur in September, and 21% expect it in December [6]. - The ECB is currently in a wait-and-see mode, with expectations for further cuts in September and December, while maintaining a cautious stance in its communications [6][9]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Trade Relations - The outcome of trade negotiations between the EU and the US is seen as a critical factor influencing the ECB's policy decisions, with potential tariffs from the US posing risks to economic stability [9]. - Analysts highlight that the balance between strong domestic demand in the Eurozone and weak external demand is currently delicate, and any trade agreement progress is unlikely before the ECB's next meeting [9]. Group 3: Inflation and Currency Concerns - The ECB's inflation forecasts indicate a target of stabilizing inflation at 2% by 2027, with current projections showing average inflation of 1.6% in 2025 [10]. - The appreciation of the euro against the dollar, which has risen nearly 12% this year, is raising concerns about its impact on inflation, with some economists suggesting that a stronger euro could suppress price pressures [11]. - There is a divergence in opinions regarding the euro's exchange rate, with some respondents indicating that a rise to 1.35 against the dollar would be problematic, while others emphasize the importance of the rate's speed and magnitude [14].