信达期货：黄金迎历史性机遇 抗通胀+避险+低相关性三重优势凸显

Macro News - US President Trump stated he does not plan to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, despite new criticisms and not ruling out the possibility of dismissal [1] - Trump indicated that the US may maintain the tariff rates set for Japan and could reach a trade agreement with India, although he does not expect a broader agreement with Japan [1] - The EU is prepared to impose tariffs on US goods worth €72 billion (approximately $83.6 billion) if trade negotiations with Washington fail [1] Economic Outlook - The latest Federal Reserve economic report shows an increase in economic activity, but the outlook remains "neutral to slightly pessimistic," with rising price pressures due to increased import tariffs [2] - The New York Fed President Williams noted that current monetary policy is appropriate, allowing officials to observe the economy before taking further action, and warned that the impact of trade tariffs on the economy is just beginning [2] Gold Market Insights - Gold assets have gained market favor, with the RMB gold price rising 28.19% in 2024, outperforming the S&P 500 index and reaching historical highs [2] - The traditional framework of "real interest rates determine gold prices" is changing, with real interest rates having reduced predictive power since 2022 [3] - Central banks' large-scale gold purchases, challenges to dollar credit due to sanctions and fiscal deficits, and frequent geopolitical conflicts are driving gold's price increase beyond traditional models [3] - Gold's low correlation with equity assets provides excellent diversification benefits, enhancing the risk-return profile of stock-bond portfolios [3] - Given the current global macroeconomic uncertainties, gold is expected to play a strategic role in asset allocation, offering inflation and risk protection [3]