对话和利资本孔令国：半导体行业正进入新一轮技术应用爆发的大周期｜科创资本论

Core Insights - The domestic semiconductor industry is currently at a critical juncture, likened to a 1000-meter race where most companies have only completed 300 meters, indicating a significant gap in technological advancement and funding needs to cover the remaining 700 meters [1][5][6] - The emergence of new applications in smart vehicles, AI terminal devices, and robotics is driving a new cycle of technological application explosion in the semiconductor industry, suggesting a long-term demand boost [2][3] - The recent introduction of the "Science and Technology Innovation Board Growth Layer" by the Shanghai Stock Exchange aims to support technology companies that focus on core technology research and are currently unprofitable, providing them with opportunities for public financing [8][9] Industry Dynamics - The semiconductor industry has experienced a surge in investment over the past three years due to domestic policies and capital influx, but recent tightening of IPOs has led to a cooling of investment sentiment [2][3] - The cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry is characterized by a five-year major cycle and a two-year minor cycle, with demand driven by technological iterations and new applications [2][3] - The competitive landscape is dominated by a few key players in each segment, with the survival of companies beyond the top two or three being increasingly difficult due to the oligopolistic nature of the market [6][7] Investment Opportunities - The current stage of several key application scenarios, such as L4 autonomous driving and AI terminal devices, indicates that the semiconductor industry is not yet saturated, presenting ongoing investment opportunities [3][4] - Future investments should focus on applications with clear explosive potential in the next 3-5 years, such as smart vehicles, while maintaining a cautious approach towards technologies that are further from commercialization [4][9] - The relationship between semiconductor technology breakthroughs and downstream application market potential is crucial for determining investment value, necessitating accurate predictions of application growth [3][4]