供应有恢复 预期猪价持续承压风险增加

Core Insights - The national average price for external three-yuan pigs is reported at various prices across different provinces, with the highest being 14.8 yuan/kg in Jinan, Shandong [1] - The futures market shows a closing price of 14,135.00 yuan/ton for the main pig futures contract, reflecting a 1.07% increase [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes stabilizing pig production through capacity adjustments and policy implementation [2] Price Trends - The average weight of external three-yuan pigs for the week of July 17 is 123.49 kg, showing a slight decrease of 0.01 kg week-on-week, but a year-on-year increase of 0.11% [2] - The futures market indicates a daily trading volume of 14,065 contracts, with prices fluctuating between 14,060.00 yuan/ton and 14,185.00 yuan/ton [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Leading enterprises are reportedly holding back on sales, resulting in a slight increase in the average weight of pigs being sold [3] - Supply is expected to recover in mid-July, but there are indications of reduced slaughter volumes during the off-season, leading to a gradual decline in pig prices [3] - The anticipated increase in demand towards the end of August may provide some support for prices, although risks of sustained pressure on prices remain [3]