175亿美元资金涌入高股息ETF，美联储降息预期点燃高股息资产热潮

Core Insights - High dividend stocks have become a market focus, with significant capital inflow into global high dividend ETFs, attracting a net inflow of $17.5 billion last week, nearly ten times the level at the beginning of 2024 [1] - The strong reaction to expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts has led investors seeking stable returns to shift their attention to high dividend assets in the equity market [1] - Despite underperformance in recent years, the high dividend strategy has unexpectedly increased dividend yields, as noted by Purpose's chief strategist Craig Basinger [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Current relative valuation of high dividend stocks is at a ten-year low, with the S&P 500 high dividend index trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of only 14.2, significantly narrowing the premium over tech stocks [3] - This has amplified the attractiveness of dividends, with 45 companies in the S&P 500 having a 12-month dividend yield exceeding 4.33%, a substantial increase from 14 companies last year [3] - The dynamics in the U.S. Treasury market have also contributed to the appeal of high dividend assets, as most Treasury yields have retreated from two-year peaks [3] Group 2: Performance and Challenges - High dividend ETFs have shown lackluster performance, with the Charles Schwab U.S. Dividend ETF rising only 1.3% this year, compared to a 7.9% increase in the S&P 500 index, indicating a potential third consecutive year of underperformance [5] - The pressure on U.S. corporate dividend growth is evident, with the S&P 500 component dividend increase narrowing to $9.8 billion in Q2, down from $19.5 billion in Q1, due to trade policy uncertainties and economic outlook concerns [5] - Despite these challenges, investors chasing yield remain undeterred, with Basinger suggesting that the "dividend winter" may be coming to an end, as cash flow advantages from high dividends remain attractive in a relatively low asset price environment [5]