“鲍威尔风险”挥之不去 “全球资产定价之锚”随时可能冲高

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury market has shown volatility amid discussions on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction, with uncertainties leading to potential long-term Treasury yields trading at a discount [1][2] Group 1: U.S. Treasury Market - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has slightly retreated to 4.45%, while the 30-year yield is expected to close above 5% for the first time since Monday [1] - The U.S. Treasury yields are under upward pressure due to factors such as the potential expansion of government budget deficits following the "Big and Beautiful" plan led by Trump, and rising long-term Japanese bond yields affecting the U.S. market [2] - The market is facing significant uncertainty regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, which may lead to long-term Treasuries continuing to trade at a discount [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - Traders are increasingly hedging against the possibility of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates faster than expected, with bets on the next chair being more inclined to cut rates significantly [5] - Current Fed officials, including potential successor Christopher Waller, advocate for a rate cut this month to support the weakening U.S. labor market, reflecting a significant divergence in monetary policy views among Fed members [5] - The probability of two rate cuts this year has been significantly reduced to 75%, down from previous expectations of three cuts totaling 75 basis points [6]