Alaska Air(US:ALK) ZACKSยท2025-07-18 14:15Core Insights - Analysts project Alaska Air Group (ALK) will report quarterly earnings of $1.56 per share, a decline of 38.8% year over year, with revenues expected to reach $3.66 billion, an increase of 26.3% from the same quarter last year [1]. Earnings Projections - Over the last 30 days, there has been a downward revision of 4.1% in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter, indicating a collective reconsideration by covering analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price movements [3]. Key Metrics Estimates - Revenue from 'Mileage Plan other' is estimated at $219.52 million, reflecting a year-over-year change of +26.2% [5]. - 'Revenue- Cargo and other' is projected to reach $137.72 million, indicating a significant increase of +91.3% from the prior-year quarter [5]. - The 'Passenger Load Factor' is expected to be 85.2%, up from 84.1% a year ago [5]. Operational Metrics - Analysts estimate 'Available seat miles (ASM)' at 22.96 billion, compared to 18.20 billion from the previous year [6]. - The consensus for 'Revenue passenger miles (RPM)' stands at 19.59 billion, up from 15.31 billion year-over-year [6]. - 'Fuel gallons' are forecasted to reach 285 million, an increase from 219 million gallons a year ago [7]. Additional Insights - 'ASMs per fuel gallon' are expected to be $79.2, down from $83.1 a year ago [8]. - 'Revenue passengers' are projected at 14.82 billion, compared to 11.89 million from the previous year [8]. - The average full-time equivalent employees (FTEs) is expected to reach 29,259, up from 23,368 year-over-year [8]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Alaska Air have returned +13.3%, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +5.4% change [9]. - Currently, ALK holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), suggesting potential underperformance relative to the overall market in the near future [9].