Molina to Report Q2 Earnings: Healthy Revenues, Weak Pulse on Earnings

Core Insights - Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) is scheduled to report its second-quarter 2025 results on July 23, 2025, with earnings estimated at $5.56 per share and revenues at $10.84 billion [1][2] Financial Performance - The second-quarter earnings estimate has seen three downward revisions recently, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 5.1% in earnings, while revenues are expected to grow by 9.7% year-over-year [2] - For the full year 2025, the revenue estimate stands at $44.06 billion, reflecting an 8.4% increase year-over-year, but the earnings per share estimate is $22.58, showing a slight decline of 0.3% [5] - Molina Healthcare has beaten consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of negative 1.6% [5] Membership and Premiums - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for premiums indicates a growth of 10.1% year-over-year in Q2, with Medicaid premiums expected to grow by 4.1% [7] - Medicaid membership is projected to decrease by 1.2% year-over-year, while Medicare membership is expected to grow by 4.2% [9] - Marketplace membership is anticipated to surge by 63% compared to the previous year [9] Cost and Income Trends - The medical care ratio (MCR) for the Marketplace is expected to rise to 77.49%, up from 71.60% a year ago, while the total MCR is projected at 88.86%, slightly up from 88.60% [9] - Rising costs and lower investment income are contributing to uncertainty regarding an earnings beat, with investment income expected to decline by 12.1% year-over-year [10] - Total operating expenses are predicted to increase by more than 8% from the previous year due to higher medical care costs and general administrative expenses [10] Market Position - The company currently holds a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell) and an Earnings ESP of -1.09%, indicating a lower likelihood of an earnings beat this quarter [6]