TotalEnergies: Why I Expect Dividend Growth To Slow From Recent Years

Group 1: Company Overview - TotalEnergies is a French company with over 100 years of experience in the oil industry and operates in more than 130 countries, holding a leading position in upstream, midstream, and downstream oil segments [1] - The company has restructured its operations to align with a long-term strategy of increasing low-carbon activities and aims to become a net-zero company by 2050 [4][20] - TotalEnergies is organized into five business segments: Exploration & Production, Integrated LNG, Integrated Power, Refining & Chemicals, and Marketing & Services [4][8] Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, TotalEnergies recorded revenues from sales of $47,899 million, down from $51,883 million in Q1 2024, with a gross profit of $14,046 million [2][3] - The net income for the same period was $3,921 million, compared to $5,804 million in Q1 2024 [2][3] - The company has a solid tradition of dividend returns, increasing dividends from €0.57 in 2012 to €0.85 expected in July 2025, representing a 49.12% increase [6][11] Group 3: Cash Flow and Investments - TotalEnergies generated cash flow from operating activities in the range of $15-25 billion from 2012-2024, with a record high of $46 billion in 2022 [12][29] - The company expects net investments of $17-17.5 billion in 2025, with a focus on projects that offer higher margins and generate more cash flow [21][24] - The investment strategy includes 33% in low-carbon energies, 20% in natural gas, and 45% in the oil chain [26] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The LNG market is expected to slow down in 2027-2029 due to increasing production capacity, which may reduce profit potential for companies in this sector [34] - The refining market is currently experiencing oversupply, which is stressing profit margins due to increased supply from various global sources [39][44] - TotalEnergies' exploration and production segment remains the primary cash generator, influencing the dividends that can be offered to shareholders [28][41]