进入缄默期！美联储降息悬念或留待9月

Group 1 - The core inflation indicators are beginning to reflect the impact of tariffs, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.3% month-on-month in June, the largest increase since January, and a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [2][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat in June, but commodity costs rose by 0.3%, indicating inflation effects from tariffs, particularly in consumer electronics, furniture, and appliances [2][3] - Market expectations suggest that the inflation effects from tariffs will become more pronounced in the CPI reports for July and August, as companies are still selling goods accumulated before the tariffs were announced [2][3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve aims to restore inflation to 2% or lower, but the highest tariff levels in decades complicate this effort, with tariffs potentially leading to more inflation depending on their magnitude and duration [3][4] - Morgan Stanley predicts that if current policies remain unchanged, core CPI inflation could rise by 0.3%-0.4% monthly in the coming months, reflecting price increases related to tariffs on consumer electronics, automobiles, and clothing [3][4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance, with officials indicating a preference to observe summer inflation data before making any rate cuts [5][6] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's dovish members, including Governor Waller, support a more accommodative policy stance, suggesting that the surge in tariffs could be a one-time event that does not necessitate a tightening of monetary policy [4][5] - The current labor market remains healthy, with officials like New York Fed President Williams advocating for a delay in rate cuts until more inflation data is available [5][6] - As of the latest data, the probability of a rate cut in July is only 5.3%, with the first potential rate reduction expected in October, indicating limited room for easing within the year [5][6]