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美联储两大席位将现空缺 特朗普有望提名鸽派成员推动激进降息
智通财经网·2025-07-18 23:48

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is pressuring the Federal Reserve to implement a significant interest rate cut of 3 percentage points, which contrasts sharply with current market expectations and the economic fundamentals of the U.S. [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership Changes - The terms of two key Federal Reserve positions are set to expire, providing Trump an opportunity to reshape the leadership and potentially implement aggressive easing policies [1] - If Trump wins the 2024 election, he could nominate successors that would allow him to influence four out of seven board members, creating a de facto majority [1] Group 2: Current Economic Conditions - Despite cooling inflation and slowing job growth, the Federal Reserve maintains the benchmark interest rate between 4.25% and 4.50% [1] - Fed Chair Powell emphasizes the need for more time to assess the full impact of tariff policies and fiscal measures on the economy [1] Group 3: Diverging Views on Interest Rate Cuts - Some Fed governors appointed by Trump are beginning to advocate for easing policies, with Governor Christopher Waller suggesting that the labor market's weakness is masked by surface data [2] - Market expectations are more conservative, with investors anticipating two rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of the year, aligning with the Fed's own projections [2] Group 4: Risks of Aggressive Easing - Trump's call for a 3 percentage point cut is widely viewed as unrealistic and potentially dangerous, given that inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target [2] - Nobel laureate Paul Krugman warns that Trump's approach to monetary policy resembles that of Turkey's President Erdogan, which led to severe inflation and a cycle of emergency rate hikes [3]