日本执政联盟面临选举挫折 分析师：最坏情况下 石破茂将辞职

Core Viewpoint - The ruling coalition in Japan, led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, is expected to lose its majority in the upcoming House of Councillors election, which could lead to significant political changes, including the potential resignation of Ishiba if the defeat is severe [1]. Group 1 - The ruling coalition needs to secure at least 50 out of 125 seats to maintain its majority [1]. - Analysts suggest that a substantial defeat could force Ishiba to resign, raising questions about his successor and the implications for US-Japan trade negotiations [1]. - Despite the potential for leadership change, some analysts believe the ruling party is unlikely to replace its leader during critical tariff negotiations [1].