Core Viewpoint - After three consecutive years of stock price decline, Kintor Pharmaceutical (09939) appears to have found a way out in 2025, with a year-to-date stock price increase of 156.70% [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Kintor's stock price has shown significant fluctuations, with notable increases in February (24.72%), March (17.12%), May (20.00%), and July (66.23%) [1] - Despite the recent gains, Kintor's stock price remains under pressure due to its exclusion from the Hong Kong Stock Connect, leading to a decline of over 40% last year [1][4] - The average trading volume of Kintor's stock has been below 1 million shares per day, indicating liquidity issues typical for small-cap companies [1] Group 2: Hong Kong Stock Connect Impact - Following its removal from the Hong Kong Stock Connect, Kintor's stock price dropped significantly, with an average decline of 24% among 27 stocks removed during the same period [4] - The proportion of Kintor's shares held by Hong Kong Stock Connect investors has decreased from approximately 35% to 24.16% over the past year [4][5] - Investors are concerned that the concentration of holdings may lead to increased selling pressure as the stock price rises [3] Group 3: Clinical Developments and Market Potential - Kintor's core product, KX-826, faced challenges in its Phase III clinical trials, but the company continues to pursue market expansion for the product [11] - The global hair loss treatment market was valued at $8.2 billion in 2022 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.0%, reaching $16.02 billion by 2030 [12] - In China, the hair loss treatment market is projected to reach 15.5 billion yuan by 2031, with a CAGR of 32% from 2021 to 2031 [12] Group 4: Recent Clinical Trial Results - Recent clinical trials showed that KX-826 combined with minoxidil demonstrated statistically significant efficacy compared to minoxidil alone, with a notable increase in hair count [16] - The safety profile of the combination treatment was favorable, with no unexpected adverse events reported [16] - Kintor's strategy of entering the beauty market with KX-826 has matured, showing potential for scalable commercialization [17] Group 5: Valuation and Future Outlook - Kintor's current price-to-book (PB) ratio is 3.62, below the average for the biopharmaceutical industry and significantly lower than the beauty industry's 7.73 [17] - If Kintor's valuation aligns more closely with the beauty sector, there may be substantial upside potential for the company's stock price [17]
踢出港股通后找到估值增长方向，选择美妆的开拓药业-B(09939)股价拉升超150%