半年盘点| 上半年国际油价宽幅震荡后低于年初，下半年油价走势如何

Core Viewpoint - The oil prices are expected to face downward pressure in the second half of the year due to weak demand and oversupply expectations, provided that geopolitical situations remain controllable [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The international oil market experienced significant price fluctuations in the first half of the year, influenced by geopolitical risks such as the Israel-Palestine conflict, U.S. tariff policies, and increased production from OPEC+ [1]. - Brent crude oil futures fluctuated from a high of $83 per barrel in January to a low of approximately $58 per barrel in April, with a volatility range of $25 per barrel [1]. - In June, escalating Middle Eastern conflicts led to a rebound in oil prices, with WTI prices surging over $10 per barrel, reaching a peak of $78 per barrel [1]. Group 2: Supply Factors - The increase in global oil supply is primarily driven by OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries, with OPEC+ accelerating production to capture market share [2]. - OPEC+ announced an unexpected production increase of 410,000 barrels per day on April 3, contributing to a significant drop in oil prices [2]. - The U.S. and other non-OPEC countries are expected to increase production by 800,000 barrels per day this year, which aligns with the global demand increase forecasted by the International Energy Agency (IEA) [2]. Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical risks have caused rapid fluctuations in oil prices, with U.S. sanctions on Russia and tensions with Iran impacting market expectations [3]. - The escalation of conflicts in the Middle East led to a significant price increase, with WTI and Brent prices rising over 13% in a single day [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that oil prices will remain weak in the second half of the year, influenced by OPEC+ production policies, geopolitical uncertainties, and tariff risks [5]. - The cumulative production increase from OPEC+ from April to August is projected to reach 1.918 million barrels per day, potentially leading to oversupply and price declines [5]. - WTI prices are expected to fluctuate between $58 and $72 per barrel, with a mainstream range of $55 to $65 per barrel anticipated for the second half of the year [6].