The Glaring Reason Why Warren Buffett Isn't Buying His Favorite ETF Right Now

Core Viewpoint - Warren Buffett advocates for investing in funds rather than individual stocks, emphasizing the need for extensive research to understand businesses before investing [1] Group 1: Buffett's Favorite ETF - Buffett's favorite ETF is implied to be the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, based on clues from his past shareholder letters and investment choices [4][5] - He has indicated that a low-cost S&P 500 index fund is suitable for non-professional investors, suggesting Vanguard's fund specifically for his family's inheritance [4] Group 2: Current Investment Position - Berkshire Hathaway completely exited its position in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF in Q4 2024, selling all shares of both the Vanguard and SPDR S&P 500 ETFs [7] - Despite not buying the ETF recently, Buffett's long-term view on S&P 500 index funds remains positive, with concerns primarily focused on current valuations [8] Group 3: Valuation Concerns - The Buffett indicator, which measures total market capitalization of U.S. stocks as a percentage of U.S. GDP, currently stands at nearly 209%, indicating high market valuations [9][10] - Buffett has previously warned that when this indicator approaches 200%, it signifies a risky investment environment [10] Group 4: Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors are advised to consider long-term holding of the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, despite Buffett's current lack of purchases, as future valuations may be higher [12] - Buffett suggests a strategy of accumulating shares over time and avoiding selling during market downturns to achieve satisfactory investment results [14]