智通财经网·2025-07-19 09:55Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is currently under pressure, but the market's preference for high dividend strategies is driving a notable upward trend in bank stocks. The release of policy dividends, along with increased participation from insurance funds, active funds, and passive funds, is expected to provide stable incremental capital for bank stocks, enhancing the sustainability of valuation recovery [1][2]. Group 1: Current Banking Fundamentals - The banking sector's fundamentals are still under pressure but show signs of marginal improvement. The net interest margin is expected to decline significantly less in 2025 due to the expiration of high-interest liabilities and a slowdown in loan pricing declines. The estimated net interest margins for state-owned and joint-stock banks are projected to be 1.34% and 1.55%, respectively, down 12 and 9 basis points from the end of 2024 [2]. - The asset quality is expected to improve while remaining stable. As of Q1 2025, the non-performing loan ratio for commercial banks was recorded at 1.51%, only slightly up by 1 basis point from the end of 2024. The provision coverage ratio stands at 208%, down 3.06 percentage points, indicating ample room above the regulatory requirement of 150% [2]. Group 2: Valuation Recovery and Market Dynamics - The core logic driving the current market rally is the valuation recovery fueled by the funding environment. This trend is expected to continue, supported by low interest rates and an asset shortage, which highlight the advantages of high dividends and quasi-fixed income characteristics of bank stocks. As of July 11, the banking sector's dividend yield was 4.87%, significantly enhancing its investment appeal due to stable dividends and sound operations [3]. - Continuous inflow of incremental capital is driving a noticeable recovery in bank stock valuations. Policies such as the introduction of mid- to long-term capital into the market and new regulations for public funds have significantly increased the demand for bank stock allocations. As of July 11, the banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio was 0.75, indicating substantial room for recovery towards a PB of 1 [3].