硅料厂商报价调整为不低于全成本 光伏产业链部分环节有望重回盈利区间

Core Viewpoint - The silicon material industry is experiencing price adjustments and a shift towards sustainable pricing strategies, driven by supply-demand dynamics and policy influences. Group 1: Industry Response and Pricing Trends - Dongfang Hope Group is actively complying with national policies aimed at healthy industry development, ensuring that production and sales activities are conducted legally and in accordance with market rules [1] - The average transaction price for N-type polysilicon has risen to 41,700 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 12.4%, while N-type granular silicon has reached 41,000 yuan/ton, up 15.2% week-on-week [1] - The transaction range for polysilicon this week is between 40,000 yuan/ton and 49,000 yuan/ton, with several companies benefiting from cost advantages due to self-supplied power plants [1][2] Group 2: Production and Demand Outlook - Domestic polysilicon production is expected to be around 105,000 tons in July, with a slight increase to 110,000 tons in August, while downstream demand remains stable at approximately 110,000 tons per month [2] - The silicon industry association predicts that the significant price difference for recycled materials is unlikely to persist, as downstream procurement will shift towards more price-attractive resources [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Projections - The silicon wafer prices have begun to rise significantly, with the average transaction price for 183N wafers at 1.05 yuan/piece, up 22.09% week-on-week [3] - The industry is witnessing a reduction in overall operating rates, with major companies operating at 50% and 40% capacity, indicating a tightening supply situation [3] - Future silicon wafer pricing will depend on the acceptance levels of downstream battery and component manufacturers, with initial new pricing expectations set at 1.45 yuan/piece for N-type G10L wafers [4] Group 4: Battery and Component Pricing - The average price for 183N battery cells has increased to 0.25 yuan/W, while 210RN and 210N cells are both at 0.26 yuan/W, driven by overseas orders [5] - The component pricing remains stable, with TOPCon components priced between 0.60 yuan/W and 0.68 yuan/W, indicating a cautious approach from manufacturers amid fluctuating demand [5][6]