东方希望、晶诺否认低于成本价出货，多晶硅涨价潮能否持续？

Core Viewpoint - Since July, the prices of polysilicon futures and spot markets have been rising, primarily due to a meeting organized by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on July 3, signaling an upgrade in the photovoltaic industry's "anti-involution" efforts [1][2] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The core of the "anti-involution" initiative is to sell products at no less than the cost price, with domestic silicon material companies responding positively to the government's guidance [1][2] - Major polysilicon producers, Dongfang Hope and Jingnuo, have denied selling products below cost price, emphasizing compliance with market rules [2][3] - The current situation shows an increase in polysilicon production while the capacity for downstream battery cells and modules is declining [1][3] Group 2: Price Trends - The average transaction price of polysilicon increased from 34,700 yuan/ton to 41,700 yuan/ton between July 2 and July 16 [4] - Despite significant price increases, transaction volumes remain low, with buyers primarily making small batch purchases [5][6] - The supply-demand dynamics shifted in July, with an expected supply of 112,000 tons and demand of 109,500 tons, reversing the previous trend of excess demand [5][6] Group 3: Future Expectations - The industry is anticipating further reform measures, including supply-side reforms such as capacity consolidation and minimum price restrictions [6] - Current market expectations suggest a minimum selling price of 40,000 to 45,000 yuan/ton based on full costs [6]